Foreigners are buying more condos in Thailand but spending less: analysis for Pattaya

The Thai Market Paradox: Rising Transaction Numbers Amid Falling Average Prices

In 2025, foreign investors purchased 14,899 condominium units in Thailand - 2.2% more than the previous year. However, the total transaction value fell from $1.94 billion to $1.85 billion (down 4.6%). According to Real Estate Information Center (REIC) data, the average purchase budget decreased from $133,000 to $124,000. Russians ranked third by number of transactions (1,172 units worth $145.3 million), behind buyers from Myanmar.

This statistic signals a structural market shift. Buyers are reorienting toward affordable properties of 30-40 m² instead of spacious premium apartments. Chinese buyers, accounting for 33.2% of all transactions, prefer studios averaging 35.6 m² priced around $115,000. Myanmar buyers choose even more compact units - averaging 32.9 m² for $94,000.

The Russian average price was $124,800 for 42.1 m². We buy larger than Asian neighbors but smaller than Europeans and Americans (who choose 50-60 m²). Indian investors lead by budget: $210,000 for a 75.7 m² apartment - classic upper segment.

Why Average Prices Are Falling: Three Demand Shift Drivers

Premium Segment Saturation and Growing Competition

After the pandemic, developers launched numerous projects anticipating pent-up demand. By 2025, supply exceeded market capacity. In Pattaya during the first quarter of 2025, 4,493 units worth 16 billion baht were introduced - a 132% increase from 2022. According to Colliers Thailand forecasts, the figure will reach 7,000 units by year-end versus a normal level of 3-5,000.

Excess supply pressures prices. Developers reduce starting prices, offer installment plans and bonuses. Buyers gained negotiating leverage. The result - transaction shift to the mass segment, where margins are lower but turnover is higher.

Influx of Asian Buyers with Smaller Budgets

Myanmar buyers increased activity by 42% year-over-year (and fourfold from 2022). Taiwanese buyers - by 24% (tripling from 2022). Both markets focus on compact housing for personal use or short-term rental.

Geopolitical instability in Myanmar pushes capital abroad. Taiwanese investors diversify portfolios due to regional tensions. Thailand offers geographic proximity, clear legal environment and low entry threshold. These buyers create mass demand for 25-35 m² studios priced at 2.5-3.5 million baht.

Slowdown in Chinese Demand for Expensive Properties

Chinese remain the largest group, but their activity decreased 13% year-over-year and 25% from 2023. China's internal economic problems - real estate market decline, capital outflow restrictions - reduced opportunities for foreign investment.

Those who buy choose budget options. Average Chinese purchase size - 35.6 m², average price - $115,700. These are studios and one-bedroom apartments for rental to tourists or students. Demand for three-bedroom apartments with sea views fell noticeably more.

Demand Geography: Chonburi Surpassed Bangkok in Transaction Numbers

For the first time in observation history, Chonburi province (Pattaya, Jomtien, Naklua) leads in foreign transactions - 41.1% of the market. Bangkok is second with 38%. Phuket takes third position.

Pattaya attracts buyers with affordability and developed infrastructure. A studio in a new project costs 2.5-3 million baht versus 4-5 million in Phuket. The city implements the Neo Pattaya strategy: U-Tapao airport modernization (passenger traffic up to 3 million per year), cruise terminal construction, high-speed railway launch to Bangkok's two airports.

Russian-speaking buyers increased Pattaya's share in demand structure by 52.9% year-over-year (Tranio data for Q1 2025). Median budget - €100,000 versus €121,700 in Phuket and €200,000 in Samui. Falling average prices make Pattaya an entry point for investors with limited capital.

Russian Segment: Stability Amid Asian Growth

Russians bought 1,172 units worth $145.3 million - third place after China and Myanmar. Growth from 2024 was 9%, from 2022 - 44%. The pace is slowing: a significant portion of interested buyers already completed transactions in 2022-2023.

Demand structure shifts from Phuket to Pattaya. Phuket's share fell from 71% in Q1 2024 to 61% in Q1 2025 (Tranio data). Pattaya grew from 16% to 25%. Samui decreased from 11% to 10%.

Russians' median budget in Pattaya fell 16.7% year-over-year - from €120,000 to €100,000. In Phuket, the decline was 12% (from €138,000 to €121,700). Buyers seek properties with real returns, not status apartments. Investment motivation dominates: 75% of Q1 2025 transactions - purchase for rental or "vacation + rental" combination.

Oversupply Risks: Lessons from 2013-2014

Colliers analysts warn of repeating the 2013-2014 crisis when Pattaya annually offered over 10,000 units. The market needed several years to absorb the excess. 27 projects (about 9,000 units) suspended sales and haven't resumed them yet.

If 2025 supply reaches 7,000 units, the market will again be at risk. Overheating signs are visible: developers offer discounts up to 20%, free furniture, one-year utility fee waivers. This signals sales difficulties.

Buyers must verify developer financial stability. Incomplete projects mean direct losses. Request data on sold unit percentages, completion timelines, bank financing availability. Projects with first-year sales below 30% - high-risk zone.

What to Buy in Falling Average Price Conditions

Compact Studios in Projects with Management Companies

Studios of 25-30 m² priced at 2.5-3 million baht show the best liquidity. Rental rate - 12-15,000 baht monthly for long-term rental, 1,200-1,500 baht daily for short-term. Annual yield - 6-8% before expenses.

Management company presence is crucial. Independent management from abroad is unprofitable. Good companies charge 20-25% of rental income and ensure 70-80% annual occupancy.

Projects Near Transport Hubs

U-Tapao modernization and high-speed railway launch increase attractiveness of areas along future lines. Naklua, Pratamnak, Jomtien - growth zones. Apartments within walking distance of stations will receive price premiums after infrastructure launch (approximately 2027-2028).

Current prices in these areas are 15-20% below central ones. The opportunity window closes after official route announcements.

Secondary Market with Discount

Primary market average price decline pressures secondary market. Owners of 2018-2020 construction units must reduce prices by 10-15% to compete with new projects.

Secondary market in good complexes with low utility costs (1,500-2,000 baht monthly) and developed infrastructure - reasonable alternative. Verify legal clarity through a lawyer: Chanote (Nor Sor 4) presence, no encumbrances, correct foreign ownership quota (maximum 49% in building).

2026 Forecast: Stabilization or Further Decline

REIC forecasts maintaining transaction numbers at 14.5-15,000 annually with further 3-5% average price decline. Asian buyers will continue increasing their share. Chinese demand will remain under pressure until China's domestic market recovers.

The Russian segment stabilizes at 1,100-1,200 annual transactions. Growth possible only with new drivers: visa regime simplification, long-term rental programs with purchase option launch, reduced mortgage barriers for foreigners.

For Pattaya, the key factor - infrastructure project implementation. If U-Tapao and the railway launch on schedule, the city gets new momentum. Delays shift demand growth to 2028-2029.

What This Means for Pattaya Buyers

Falling average prices open opportunities for entry with less capital. A studio for 2.5 million baht (about $70,000) - realistic start for limited-budget investors. But competition grows: Asian buyers are active, supply is excessive.

Three practical steps:

First: focus on liquidity, not status. An apartment in central Pattaya with good management company matters more than panoramic 30th-floor views in a remote area. Check developer history: how many projects completed, what percentage sold in current properties.

Second: account for total ownership cost. Utilities, repair fund, management company commission - 30-40,000 baht annually. Rental tax (if renting legally) - 12.5% of income for non-residents. Real yield after expenses - 4-6%, not 8-10% as sellers promise.

Third: don't rush. The market transitions from growth to stabilization. Prices won't soar in the next 12 months. Time favors buyers: you can negotiate, compare projects, demand concessions. Developers with high unsold unit levels are ready for 10-15% discounts from list price.

Pattaya remains an entry point to the Thai market for Russian-speaking investors. But success depends on choosing the right property, realistic yield assessment and understanding oversupply risks. Buy with a cool head, not under seller pressure.