Growth in Transactions Amid Falling Average Price: Thailand's Real Estate Market Paradox
In the first nine months of 2025, foreign buyers registered ownership of 8,247 condominiums in Thailand-a 12% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, the average transaction price fell from 6.8 to 5.9 million baht, a decline of 13.2%. The total transaction value decreased from 52.4 to 48.7 billion baht. The data was published by Thailand's Land Department in October 2025 and confirmed by Knight Frank Thailand analysts.
Buyers have switched to studios and one-bedroom apartments of 25-35 m² instead of two-bedroom units of 50-70 m². Demand has shifted from Bangkok to resort areas: Pattaya, Hua Hin, Samui. Chinese investors, who previously dominated the premium segment, have given way to Russians seeking income-generating properties with 6-8% annual returns.
Demand Structure: Who's Buying and Where
Russian citizens took first place in the number of transactions-1,847 registrations in the first nine months of 2025. The average Russian purchase price was 4.2 million baht, 18% lower than the 2024 figure. Chinese buyers took second place with 1,523 transactions, but their average price fell from 9.1 to 6.4 million baht-a 29.7% decline.
Third place went to buyers from the United Kingdom: 612 transactions with an average price of 7.3 million baht. The British prefer two-bedroom apartments in Bangkok's Sukhumvit area and on Phuket's west coast. French and German buyers round out the top 5 with a combined volume of about 900 transactions.
Geographically, demand was distributed as follows: Bangkok received 3,214 transactions (39% of the total), Pattaya and the Eastern Seaboard-2,476 transactions (30%), Phuket-1,485 transactions (18%), other provinces-1,072 transactions (13%). A year ago, Bangkok's share was 47%; now buyers are more actively choosing resort locations.
Why the Average Price Fell: Four Factors
The first factor is the devaluation of the yuan against the baht. In January 2024, the exchange rate was 4.95 yuan per 1 baht; by September 2025, it had fallen to 5.28 yuan. Chinese buyers lost about 6.7% of their purchasing power and switched to budget studios.
The second factor is tighter lending in China. The People's Bank of China in March 2025 limited foreign currency transfers for purchasing overseas real estate to $50,000 USD per person per year. Previously, the limit was $100,000. Buyers are forced to split transactions or choose cheaper properties.
The third factor is the growth in supply of budget projects. Developers launched 27 new condominiums in Pattaya with prices ranging from 1.8 to 3.5 million baht for 25-30 m² studios. Projects are located in Pratamnak, Jomtien, and Naklua areas. The average price per square meter in these complexes is 95,000-120,000 baht, which is 20-25% lower than prices in central Pattaya.
The fourth factor is a change in buyer strategy. Investors are looking for income-generating properties for short-term rentals, not properties for personal residence. A studio for 2.5 million baht in Jomtien generates 15,000-18,000 baht per month at 70-75% occupancy, with annual returns reaching 7.2%. A two-bedroom apartment for 7 million baht yields 30,000-35,000 baht per month, with returns falling to 5.1%.
Central Pattaya and Naklua: What Has Changed for Investors
Central Pattaya remains the most expensive location: the average price per square meter in new projects is 145,000-180,000 baht. Developers offer 28-32 m² studios priced at 4.2-5.8 million baht. Rental yields in the center are higher thanks to tourist traffic: 8-9% annually at 80-85% occupancy.
Naklua attracts buyers with lower prices: 95,000-125,000 baht per m². The area is popular among European expats seeking quiet locations away from nightclubs. The average price for a 30 m² studio is 3.2 million baht. Rental yields are lower than in the center-6-7% annually-but properties pay for themselves faster.
Developers in Naklua launched five new projects in 2025. Prices start from 2.8 million baht for a 28 m² studio located 800 meters from the sea. Buyers receive a furniture package worth 150,000-200,000 baht and guaranteed returns of 6% for the first two years-the developer rents out the apartment themselves and transfers a fixed amount to the owner.
In central Pattaya, the emphasis has shifted to high-rise towers with infrastructure: rooftop pools, co-working spaces, fitness centers. Projects are designed for short-term tourist rentals. Developers offer property management with a 20-25% commission on income. Average occupancy of such properties is 75-80% in high season and 50-55% in low season.
Return Calculation Example: Studio in Jomtien vs. One-Bedroom Apartment in the Center
A buyer from Moscow is considering two options. The first is a 28 m² studio in Jomtien for 2.6 million baht. The cost per square meter is 92,857 baht. Monthly income from short-term rental is 16,000 baht at 70% occupancy. Annual income is 192,000 baht. Expenses for management (25%), utilities, taxes, and maintenance fund amount to 68,000 baht per year. Net income is 124,000 baht, a return of 4.77%.
The second option is a 35 m² one-bedroom apartment in central Pattaya for 5.2 million baht. The cost per square meter is 148,571 baht. Monthly rental income is 22,000 baht at 80% occupancy. Annual income is 264,000 baht. Expenses are 95,000 baht per year. Net income is 169,000 baht, a return of 3.25%.
The studio in Jomtien pays for itself in 21 years, the apartment in the center-in 31 years. However, the liquidity of the property in the center is higher: when sold, the apartment loses 5-7% of its value, the studio in Jomtien-10-12%. Investors choose a strategy depending on the planning horizon: short-term speculation or long-term income.
Risks for Foreign Buyers in 2026
The first risk is changes in currency exchange rates. The ruble strengthened against the baht in 2025 from 0.38 to 0.42 rubles per 1 baht. If the rate reverses, buyers will lose on conversion. Developers offer price fixing in rubles but charge a 3-5% commission.
The second risk is market oversaturation. Pattaya has 43 new condominiums under construction, scheduled for completion in 2026-2027. The total supply will exceed 18,000 units. Demand may not absorb such volume, and secondary market prices will fall by 8-12%.
The third risk is tightening rules for foreigners. The Thai government is discussing raising the minimum purchase price for non-residents from 1 to 3 million baht. The law may come into force in mid-2026. Studios cheaper than 3 million baht will become unavailable to foreigners, and demand will shift to a more expensive segment.
The fourth risk is a rental tax. Thailand's Revenue Department plans to introduce mandatory registration of short-term rental contracts through an online platform. Owners will pay 15% income tax on rental income instead of the current 5-10%. Investment returns will decrease by 1.5-2 percentage points.
Purchase Strategies for Russian Investors
The first strategy is buying at the foundation stage. Developers offer a 15-20% discount from the final price. A studio for 2.8 million baht during construction will cost 3.5 million baht after completion. The risk is project delays or developer bankruptcy. Check the company's license with Thailand's Department of Business Development and the construction permit.
The second strategy is buying ready-made properties on the secondary market. Sellers reduce the price by 10-15% for a quick sale. A studio for 3.2 million baht in central Pattaya can be bought for 2.7-2.9 million baht. Check the legal cleanliness of the transaction: absence of encumbrances, debts on utility payments, correct registration of ownership at the Land Office.
The third strategy is buying in areas with growing infrastructure. Naklua will receive a new 25,000 m² shopping center in 2026; construction began in August 2025. Property prices within a 1 km radius of the center will increase by 8-12% after opening. Buy now, sell in two years.
The fourth strategy is diversification by location. Don't invest all capital in one project. Buy two studios in different areas: one in central Pattaya for tourists, another in Naklua for long-term rental to expats. The risk of vacancy will decrease, and income will become more stable.
2026 Forecast: What to Expect from the Market
CBRE Thailand analysts forecast an 8-10% growth in the number of transactions with foreigners in 2026. The total number of transactions will reach 11,000-11,500 registrations. The average price will continue to decline: the expected value is 5.4-5.6 million baht, a 5-8% drop relative to 2025.
Demand will shift to the 25-30 m² studio segment with prices of 2.5-3.5 million baht. The share of such properties in the total transaction volume will grow from 42% to 51%. Two-bedroom apartments will lose popularity: their share will fall from 31% to 24%.
Russian buyers will maintain their lead in the number of transactions. The projected number of registrations is 2,300-2,500 transactions. Chinese buyers will remain in second place, but their activity will grow more slowly due to currency restrictions.
Prices for new buildings in central Pattaya will increase by 3-5% due to rising construction material costs. Secondary market prices will fall by 4-6% due to excess supply. The gap between the primary and secondary markets will increase to 18-22%.
What This Means for Buyers in Pattaya
Growth in the number of transactions amid falling average prices opens opportunities for investors with limited budgets. Studios for 2.5-3 million baht in Jomtien and Naklua yield 6-7% annually, which is higher than deposit rates in Russian banks.
Buyers should act before mid-2026, before the government introduces restrictions on minimum purchase prices. After the law is passed, access to budget studios will close, and buyers will have to purchase properties over 3 million baht.
Choose projects from developers with more than five years of experience and completed projects. Check for construction permits and the company's financial stability. Request a copy of the license and an extract from the register of legal entities.
For long-term investments, Naklua is preferable: prices are lower, the area is developing, and new infrastructure is appearing. For short-term speculation, choose central Pattaya: liquidity is higher, properties sell faster.
Consider buying during construction if the developer provides a money-back guarantee in case of completion delays. Savings of 15-20% compensate for risks. Pay for the purchase in stages, don't transfer the entire amount in a single payment.
Conclusions: How to Use the Current Situation
Thailand's real estate market is undergoing structural transformation. Foreigners are buying more properties but spending less money on each transaction. Demand has shifted to the budget segment of studios and one-bedroom apartments.
Investors have access to properties with 6-8% annual returns with the right choice of location and management strategy. Risks include market oversaturation, currency fluctuations, and possible legislative restrictions.
Act now, while secondary market prices are falling and the government has not introduced new barriers for foreign buyers. Choose verified developers, diversify investments, and check the legal cleanliness of each transaction.
