Why the Price Per Square Meter in Jomtien Increased by 350,000 Baht in Six Months
Pattaya developers have raised the cost per square meter in new projects by 8-14% since February 2026. The reason is the collapse of logistics through the Strait of Hormuz after the resumption of the blockade by the United States on July 14. Traffic through the strait fell by 52%, Brent crude oil rose to $84 per barrel, and steel and aluminum for construction became 18-22% more expensive. Buyers of 28 m² studios in Jomtien today pay 2.8-3.2 million baht instead of 2.45 million baht in winter.
How the Hormuz Blockade Hit Building Materials in Thailand
The Strait of Hormuz passed a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies before February 2026-more than 15 million barrels per day worth $1.2 billion. Iran closed the strait on February 28, the US resumed the blockade of Iranian ports on July 14, striking coastal systems in Bushehr, Bandar Abbas and Chabahar. The cost of shipping a container from the Persian Gulf to Laem Chabang rose from $1,800 to $4,200 per TEU.
Thailand imports 65% of steel from China and South Korea, with some routes passing through Hormuz. Suppliers redirected cargo through the Strait of Malacca, adding 9-12 days to delivery times. Prices for D16 rebar in Pattaya rose from 18,500 baht per ton in January to 22,400 baht in July. Aluminum window profiles became 19% more expensive, glass-11%.
Cement is produced locally, but its cost is tied to oil: transport, clinker burning, packaging. A 50 kg bag of Portland cement increased from 185 to 214 baht. A mid-sized developer with a 200-unit project allocates 4,500 tons of cement-the overrun amounted to 2.6 million baht on binders alone.
Who Raised Prices in Jomtien and Wongamat and by How Much
Major developers announced price adjustments in April-June. Sansiri raised the cost of studios in the Base Central Pattaya project (Jomtien, second quarter 2027) from 2.49 to 2.79 million baht-a 12% increase. Origin Property revised prices in The Origin Wongamat by 9%, one-bedroom apartments of 32 m² now start at 3.85 million baht instead of 3.53 million.
Mid-sized local developers raised prices by 8-10%. The Arcadia Beach Continental project (Pratumnak) added 8% to studios, with the square meter reaching 94,000 baht. Dusit Grand Park 2 (Jomtien) raised one-bedroom units of 35 m² to 3.1 million baht-plus 280,000 baht compared to February listings.
Buyers who signed contracts in winter with installment plans locked in the old price. Those who postponed their decision until summer lost 250-450 thousand baht on the same layout. Developers are not offering discounts: demand from Thai and Asian investors compensates for the pause among Russian-speaking clients.
Forecast: When Prices Will Stabilize and Whether to Wait
CBRE Thailand analysts expect stabilization by the end of 2026 under two conditions: resumption of transit through Hormuz and completion of inventory adjustment by steel suppliers. So far, neither condition has been met. The US proposed a 20% fee for passage through the strait, but on July 15 Trump backed down, stating that Persian Gulf countries would instead invest in the American economy.
Iran attacked two tankers, Mombasa and Al Bahiyah, in Hormuz on July 14, killing two sailors and injuring 14. The UAE threatened retaliatory measures. The temporary 60-day pause agreement reached in June collapsed. The UN maritime organization rejected the idea of paid transit, emphasizing the lack of legal grounds for fees.
If the conflict drags on until the end of the year, developers will build in another 6-8% reserve for new 2027 projects. A studio in Jomtien could cost 3.3-3.5 million baht by spring. Buying now locks in the price until project completion, which with a 24-month installment plan provides savings of 15-18% against future prices.
How Developers Are Compensating for Rising Costs
Developers are revising specifications to maintain margins. Some projects replaced imported Grohe and Hansgrohe sanitary ware with Thai brands Cotto and American Standard-saving 18,000-25,000 baht per unit. Italian-made porcelain tiles gave way to Chinese and Vietnamese-minus 12% on finishing.
Some companies reduced common areas: instead of two pools they design one, cut fitness room space, eliminate saunas. The buyer gets the same apartment square footage but less infrastructure. This reduces attractiveness for resale and rental.
Major players like Sansiri and Ananda Development maintain specifications but pass the cost increase to the client. Their projects target the middle and premium segments, where buyers are willing to pay for brand and quality. Local developers balance: raise prices by 8%, save on materials another 4%, final margin remains at 16-18%.
Impact on the Secondary Market and Resale
Pattaya's secondary market reacted with a delay. Owners of apartments in completed complexes raised prices by 3-5% in May-July, guided by new construction. A 30 m² studio in Laguna Beach Resort 3 (Wongamat, completed 2019) sold for 2.6 million baht in winter, now asking 2.75-2.8 million. A 35 m² one-bedroom apartment in Arcadia Beach Resort (Pratumnak, 2017) rose from 3.2 to 3.4 million baht.
Secondary market buyers get ready housing without risk of delayed completion but overpay for furniture and renovations that are often outdated. New construction offers installment plans and baht-to-ruble rate fixing through escrow accounts at some developers. With current volatility, this advantage is worth 4-6% of the transaction amount.
Investors who bought apartments in 2024-2025 are locking in a 10-14% value increase excluding renovations. Resale before project completion (flipping) brings 320-450 thousand baht on a studio with minimal investment-15-20% down payment, the rest assigned to a new buyer.
What This Means for Russian Buyers in Pattaya
Russian-speaking clients make up 12-15% of new construction buyers in Pattaya according to agencies. Most focus on studios and one-bedroom units in Jomtien, Pratumnak, Wongamat-the 2.5-4.5 million baht segment. Price increases of 8-14% eat into budgets calculated in winter and force either location review or increased down payment.
The ruble-to-baht exchange rate fluctuates in the 0.88-0.94 range, adding currency risk. A buyer who saved 7 million rubles for a 2.8 million baht studio in winter is now short 200-300 thousand baht due to ruble weakening. The cumulative effect is minus 15-18% purchasing power in six months.
Solution: lock in the price now through booking with a 100-200 thousand baht down payment. Most developers offer installment plans until completion (18-30 months), which spreads payments and reduces budget pressure. Alternative-the secondary market within 1-2 km of the sea, where prices rose less, but choice is limited to completed 2016-2020 projects.
Land purchases for development in Pattaya have not yet been affected by the increase: plots in Huay Yai and Bang Saray cost 3-5 million baht per rai (1,600 m²), prices are stable. Turnkey house construction became 12% more expensive, the square meter reached 22-26 thousand baht depending on specifications. Return on investment through villa rental increased from 11 to 13 years.
Practical Steps: How to Minimize Overpayment
First step-request the current price list from the developer and compare with February prices. The difference will show the real growth for a specific project. Some developers raised prices twice: 5% in April, another 4% in July. Clarify whether a third wave is planned before year-end.
Second-check installment terms. Standard scheme: 20-30% down payment, the rest in equal installments until completion. Clarify whether the final amount is fixed or the developer reserves the right to adjust for exchange rate changes. English-language contracts should contain a "fixed price" clause.
Third-evaluate alternatives in neighboring locations. Projects in the Thappraya area (between Jomtien and Pratumnak) increased by 6-8% instead of 12% in central Jomtien. Studios of 26-28 m² cost 2.4-2.7 million baht, 1.2-1.5 km to the sea, weaker infrastructure, but savings of 300-400 thousand baht.
Fourth-engage an agent with access to wholesale prices. Large agencies get a 3-5% discount from developers on transaction volume, part of the discount is passed to the client. On a 2.8 million baht studio, this is 84-140 thousand baht-covering the agent's commission and leaving savings.
2027 Forecast: Market Development Scenarios
Base scenario: the Hormuz conflict subsides by the end of 2026, traffic recovers to 80% of February levels, steel prices decrease by 8-10% by March 2027. Developers don't lower prices but freeze them at current levels. Studios in Jomtien remain in the 2.8-3.2 million baht range, new projects start at the same prices.
Pessimistic scenario: the blockade continues throughout 2027, oil reaches $110-120 per barrel, steel becomes another 15% more expensive. Developers build the increase into new phases, the square meter in Jomtien exceeds 100,000 baht, studios start from 3.5 million. Demand falls by 20-25%, some projects are frozen, the market enters stagnation.
Optimistic scenario: the US and Iran sign an agreement to open Hormuz without fees, transit resumes in full by January 2027. Freight and materials become 12-18% cheaper, developers launch promotions with a return to winter prices to stimulate demand. Studios in new projects fall to 2.6-2.9 million baht, the market restores sales volumes.
Probability of scenarios: base 55%, pessimistic 30%, optimistic 15%. The purchase decision depends on the investment horizon. If the goal is occupancy in 2027-2028, buying now locks in the price and eliminates the risk of further growth. If the horizon is 2029 and beyond, you can wait for stabilization but risk missed opportunities with early market recovery.
